Outlook has shifted from optimism to realism, with CEOs more optimistic than investors themselves.

According to the press release:

When compared to last year’s survey, forecasts from venture capital professionals (VCs) and venture-backed CEOs are less confident and more measured for the coming year, with few notable bright spots. There is considerable enthusiasm for information technology (IT) investment, particularly on the consumer side, as well as start-up company momentum, especially job growth. Yet, predictions in critical areas such as IPOs and venture fundraising are tepid at best, reflecting ongoing, unavoidable challenges faced by VCs and entrepreneurs alike.

"Due to the large number of market and political factors at play, it is incredibly difficult to predict the state of the venture capital ecosystem in 2012,” said Mark Heesen, president of the NVCA. “Despite the fact that venture capitalists and entrepreneurs are well positioned to thrive, externalities are keeping optimism at bay.  The venture industry is not an island unto itself and economic instability here and abroad, coupled with a number of public policy issues poised to impact the start-up community, can offset the positives such as an improving IPO pipeline and opportunities for FDA and capital markets reform.  These uncertainties are clearly to blame for the less sanguine predictions this year. However, it is encouraging to see venture capitalists and entrepreneurs forecasting a number of positives including increasing valuations, headcount, and global activity amidst the realities that face our industry."

Fifty-eight percent of VCs anticipate a seed and early stage funding shortage next year. CEOs are likewise anxious: 67 percent predict raising follow-on money will be equally or more difficult in 2012 than in 2011. Couple that with the fact that 75 percent of CEOs plan to raise money in 2012 and you have a recipe for a seed stage slaughter.

That "startup winter" you've been warned about? Like the snow we've been spared in December, maybe it's not coming until after the New Year.

Winter commeth? Via Zokuga's Flickr

The National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters issued their third quarter survey today for money raised by venture capital funds and the results seem to show a downward trend, perhaps slouching towards that startup winter we've been warned about.

According to the report, 52 U.S. VC funds raised $1.72 billion in Q3--the lowest dollar amount raised since Q3 2003. The report says, "This level marks a 53 percent decrease by dollar commitments and a 4 percent decline by number of funds compared to the third quarter of 2010, which saw 53 funds raise $3.5 billion during the period."

Just 16 percent of that $1.72 billion was raised for funds based in New York. NVCA sent Betabeat a breakdown that showed $278.64 million raised by seven different local funds, with the largest amount going to RRE. That's a big drop from the $2.866 billion raised by New York-based funds in Q1, 2011 and notable 40.3 percent drop from the $463.73 million raised by New York funds in Q2.

Firms                           Money Raised (USD Millions) in Q3

Raine Partners            72.50

RRE Ventures           137.40

Level Equity              9.94

Thrive Capital          40.00

City Light Capital    0.83

New World Capital Group   16.89

BHV VC                   1.08

Keep in mind, however, that doesn't include brand new players on the scene like NY-based early stages funds from Trigger Media Group and Tribeca Venture Partners or Union Square Ventures new $150 million to $200 million fund. Nor does it take into account the New York offices of outside VCs, like say, the $750 million global fund from RTP, whose managing partner Kirill Sheynkman just opened up shop in NYC.

Disclosure.