It’s a fair bet.
The Market Forces Working For and Against Groupon ($GRPN):
+ Groupon is the Coca Cola of social coupon deals. Everyone knows it.
+ Investing in Groupon to the general public sounds like investing in Coca Cola: Not a stupid bet, especially since all of your friends are using it. The hype is extraordinary.
+ Startups are everywhere! People love ‘em! And even if they turn out to suck or outgrow themselves, people don’t have schadenfreude about startups the way they do when other corporations fail.
+ It’s a startup-turned-billion-dollar-I.P.O. toured by investment banks, which is like having your garage band’s first major tour produced by Disney, Harvey Weinstein, and Jerry Weintraub with tickets sold by Ticketmaster and Budweiser sponsoring the whole thing. The banks put their own money and their clients’ money into the I.P.O. because they need to put their money where their mouths are when they’re selling Groupon to the world. It’s like having every awesome Arnold Schwarzenegger chracter ever as their personal I.P.O. trainer.
- People think it’s a Ponzi scheme.
- Groupon CEO Andrew Mason can’t STFU.
- We’ve seen a tech bubble once before, and it’s ugly.
- GRPN started out strong in their market debut, but after five days, has tumbled from 30.5 percent above the debut price to 21 percent above the debut price.
The Market Forces Working For and Against My Fat, Pale Jewish Ass ($BDNK):
- Bacon. Cheeseburgers. Bacon Cheeseburgers.
- There’s a Shake Shack literally on the same block as this office.
- I work in Midtown, where eating healthily is less of a dietary issue so much as it is an existential riddle.
- I’ve smoked about four to seven cigarettes a day since I was 16.
- December holidays were in a month. There was a lot of eating to be done, and holiday parties to hit. And I enjoy the occasional alcoholic beverage.
- I’m not actually wagering anything.
- Despite going to the gym semi-regularly, I’ve weighed within the same five pound range of 198-203 basically forever. I also don’t have a trainer or anyone telling me how to do this.
- Who joins an overpriced gym when they don’t even know how to use it? Assholes, that’s who. And I’ve been a member for two years.
+ I really want to get into shape. Who doesn’t?
+ My gym is ridiculously expensive, and it’s cheaper the more I go, and I don’t want to just let that money waste away, especially since I’m locked into a contract.
+ Nothing tastes as good as skinny feels (supposedly).
+ I was, that day, newly single. Not, like, on-the-market-newly-single, but single-enough-to-want-to-go-to-the-gym-more-than-I-did-a-week-prior. Also, I had been decent—not great, but good enough—about going to the gym regularly prior to this. I guess if you weren’t me and knew this, this would kind of be like insider trading on my ass, but thankfully, $BDNK isn’t subject to SEC regulatory law. Also, nobody was actually wagering anything on this. So there’s that.
So, the bet was on. Any weight I’d lost from that point on would be counted up as an increase on the share price of $BDNK versus the share price of $GRPN. So confident was I in the forces of investment banks working overtime to create a cloud of bullshit around Groupon, or the overly euphoric tech press’ and general investment sector’s respective lack of abilities to see through the bullshit that Groupon going public is—like all financial euphoria—that I thought my ass could beat it.
Two months later, and here we are.
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