So: Yesterday we had a wonderful little contest in which we offered everyone a chance to guess the Groupon IPO pricing, and what it would close at today. Here are the results, in which you watch an entire team of bloggers lose to both the least (and most!) obvious people we would lose to. There’s a cookie on the line, here.
For the record, Groupon’s IPO priced last night at $20.00. Shares of GRPN closed today at $26.11.
Foster: My insane pre-IPO pessimism—priced at $16.85, closing at $14.25—was strongly refuted. $3.15 off pricing, $11.86 off close. My guess was under by a total of $15.01. I am a big, stupid bear.
Adrianne: “Pricing at $18.00, closing at $40.00.” Adrianne missed the IPO by going under $2.00, and was over by $13.89 on the close. She was off by a total of $15.89, but she’s correct about people being “sheep.” That part is true. She gets a cookie for that.
Ben: Our fearless leader had the Groupon shares pricing at $16, rocketing to $60, and closing at $30. He wasn’t even close with the high, but lucky for him, that doesn’t get scored. Our fearless leader’s guess is off by $4 on the IPO, and $3.89 on the close. Total: $7.89. Impressive.
Nitasha: Nitasha also had a crazypants “it goes up to $50″ guess like Ben, but her offering and close numbers were more modest: $15.50 on IPO, close at $20. She was off the IPO by $4.50, and the close by $6.11. Total: $10.61.
So, of all the Betabeat staffers, Ben got the closest. Interestingly enough, Ben’s been out of the office all day, likely manipulating a market somewhere. We’ll save him a cookie for Monday. But how did our contestants do?
We might have only had one commenter, but goddamn was he good, besting the entire Betabeat team. DennyCrane‘s guess: “Opens at $14.50, closes at $27.50.” He was off on the IPO by $5.50, but off the close by only $1.39. Wow. Total: $6.89.
Nick Rizzo over at Reuters was off by $15.89. He was “confused” by Betabeat’s extreme pessimism in our tres sophisticated estimations/forced G-chatted guesses on the way out the door last night. Dude, you’re Felix Salmon’s Blogging Capo and we spend our time in Startupland, not the public markets (as evidenced herein), and yet the very worst one of us tied with you. We suggest being wary of Felix’s Friday StunGun; we wouldn’t dare ever shame him like that for fear of reasonable consequences.
Bloggerthing Connor Simpson got in on the game late, but guessed: “Betting GRPN hits $40 by 1pm, $60 by mid afternoon and closes at $35.” Groupon peaked at $31.14 and didn’t close near it, or go near $40. Womp womp. You were $9.89 off the closing price, Connor, which is still sadly better than Adrianne and I. But since you didn’t guess the IPO pricing, you don’t get to play. Go to hell.
The best guess as of last night came from Zach Seward over at the Wall Street Journal: “Opening at $19, closing at $30.” Zach was off by $1 for the IPO pricing, and—wait for it—$3.89 on the close, for a total of $4.89. And that makes him our winner. And of course the guy at the Wall Street Journal won.
What did we learn? Betabeat can’t guess an IPO for shit, but at least we’re better than the Reuters guy, but we could still creep up on our commenters and Tweeters. Meanwhile, Ben will not be voted off the island even though he probably did his best to manipulate today’s markets. Finally, the Wall Street Journal has smart people working for them. Zach Seward, you earned yourself one Groupon Cookie, en route Monday. Well played. As for us, we’ll be blogging the rest of the IPO next week.
Hopefully, I’ll have stopped breathing into this paper bag by then. Thanks for playing! Cookies forthcoming (we’re a blog of our word, Zach).